Some independent math – just wanted to get a second take on this from @knoshua’s.
Grabbing data from https://dune.com/drworm/rocketpool.
From 10/03 (after the steep slopes from whale marriage were complete) to today, we’ve gone from 138.29k rETH to 178.45k rETH. In that same time the peg has gone from 1.0399 to 1.0551. That means rETH TVL has gone from 143.8k ETH to 188.3k ETH in 107 days or ~416 ETH per day. At a guess, we’re 50 days from Shapella, which would have us at 209.1k rETH TVL assuming the same rate (ignoring LEB8s being available for the last part of that period, and ignoring folks waiting for LEB8s to launch).
18k would be 8.6% - a bit higher drag than desireable, but nothing to write home about.
I have previously done the work to find how many minipools could move over without adding any extra RPL (grabbed data from rocketscan and processed it with a python script). As of 12/19, it was 15,302 new LEB8s, which represents up to 244,832 extra ETH [small error fixed 1/19]. I’m not redoing the work, but this will obviously have grown a ton - especially given RPL appreciation against ETH. In order to get to get to 5%, we need 360k rETH TVL, which means we only need about 62% of the minipools that could migrate without adding any investment . Again - this is very conservative because it’s based of data from 12/19 with RPL/ETH around 0.016 instead of today’s 0.021.
On top of that, this conservatively assumes:
- Zero acceleration in rETH minting from LEB8s
- Zero solo migrators
- Zero migrators that add RPL to migrate
- Zero folks with money that’s freed up from (coinbase/binance/stETH regaining peg/etc)
- Not counting on the whale marriage that has been hinted at
I think 18k is a very safe bet. I haven’t seen any model for how we realistically end up with:
- A full deposit pool
- 18k being more than 5% of rETH TVL
If you think 18k is aggressive, please share a model showing something along those lines.