Minipool to megapool break-even calculator, and what the queue looks like right now

I built a small read-only calculator for legacy minipool operators. You paste a node address and it works out whether moving to 4 ETH megapool validators pays off, and how long it takes to break even. It only reads from the contracts. It never asks for a wallet and never sends a transaction.

Page: Migration Break-Even
Code and formulas: GitHub - ss1738/rp-migrate-sim: Read-only break-even calculator for moving a Rocket Pool legacy minipool to 4 ETH megapool validators · GitHub

What it reads: your active legacy minipools (bond and commission), your RPL, the bond curve, the revenue shares (5% operator, 9% voter), the RPL price, and the express and standard queue lengths.

The queue is the part that surprised me. On 2026-10-15 the express queue held 1,560 validators and the standard queue 786. I counted FundsAssigned events on the deposit pool over the last 30 days and got 63, about 2 a day. The queue index is at 2,235 in total. A new express entry sits behind about 1,950 assignments. That is roughly 930 days at the recent rate. If the rate were about 9 a day (the average the index would show if it has been counting since 18 Feb), it would be about 210 days.

Two examples, with assumed inputs (3% yield, 7 days to exit, 57 days Beacon entry, 0.02 ETH gas):

  • One 16 ETH minipool at 5% commission earns about 0.14 ETH a year more as four 4 ETH validators, before any RPL. Break-even is about 3.3 years at 9 a day and about 10 years at 2 a day.
  • One 8 ETH minipool at 14% commission earns about 0.017 ETH a year less after the move, unless you stake some RPL for the voter share. The tool shows how much; for this case it is a couple of hundred RPL.

Commissions differ a lot between minipools, so the answer changes by node. Treat these as outputs of stated assumptions.

What it does not do yet: it does not model legacy RPL rewards (you can enter them by hand), it estimates the number of staked megapool validators rather than reading it directly, and the yield and Beacon queue days are inputs you set. RPIP-79 and RPIP-83 are switches, because they are not final.

Questions for node operators:

  1. Would you use this? What is missing?
  2. Is about 2 assignments a day what you see in practice?
  3. Can legacy RPL be moved to Megapool voter stake without exiting first? I could not confirm it.
  4. RPIP-43 (Megapools) says operators “MAY be able to migrate existing validators” by updating withdrawal credentials. Does that cover minipool validators, or only solo ones?

If you find a mistake, tell me here or open an issue on the repo, and I will fix it.